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Base Case Scenario

The starting point for Blueprint was a "Base Case Scenario," a projection of how the six-county Sacramento region would grow if recent development trends continued for the next 50 years. The region that includes Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Yuba, Sutter and Yolo counties will remain an attractive place to live and will grow dramatically. One of the most startling figures to arise from the study is that there will be an estimated 1.7 million more people in the Sacramento Region in 2050 than there were in 2000. As we grow to more than 3.6 million residents, the number of homes will more than double from 713,000 to over 1.5 million.

Is there enough land set aside to support new homes, jobs and development forecast for 2050? According to the Base Case Study, the answer is "no." In order to tackle that and other issues, the Preferred Blueprint Scenario was developed.

Some Base Case findings:

  • An additional 661 square miles of vacant land will be converted to urban development in the six-county region. Of these, 166 square miles are agricultural land.
  • Residents will drive more miles annually and spend more time in their cars, especially during commutes. The average household will spend about 30 additional minutes per day in the car.
  • Growth at the current rate will have significant impact on natural land systems. An estimated 43 percent of vernal pools and wetlands and 21 percent of oak woodlands will be affected under the Base Case.

The following maps detail how development may affect the region under the base case scenario.

Urban Areas:  2000 vs. 2050